The Real Surge in Iraq – the rapid expansion of the Iraqi Security Forces – continues. The Iraqi Security Forces is expanding with the Iraqi Army now growing to 61 planned brigades in 15 divisions while the Iraqi Special Operations Forces becomes the defacto 16th division. The latest "Measuring Security and Stability in Iraq" quarterly report was publicly released on December 18, 2007. What follows is some of the key developments of Iraqi Security Force.

According to the report, all remaining Iraqi provinces are set to transition to provincial Iraqi control in 2008. Of the 18 provinces, nine have already transitioned. The report also mentions that 61 of the 125 Coalition forward operating bases have been closed or transferred to Iraqi forces. Over 491,000 personnel are on Iraqi Security Force rolls, not including the civilian staff, Concerned Local Citizens, and Facilities Protection Service. The authorized Iraqi Security Force end strength continues to increase. There was an 80,000 ISF increase since last report due to uncounted non-Coalition funded training not previously reported.

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Iraqi Ground Forces Command (IGFC)

The Iraqi MoD is authorized 208,000 personnel and has 161,000 personnel organized into ten infantry, one mechanized, and two establishing divisions.

The Iraqi Army is short on officer and non-commissioned officer leadership but strong in the enlisted ranks. The average manning of Iraqi Army units is 112 percent over strength as of end of November 2007. The enlisted ranks are 150 percent overmanned, while the non-commissioned officer corps is at 45 percent strength and the officer corps at 60 percent.

There are nine more IA battalions in the fight than there were in the last report. Seventy-seven percent the Army battalions can plan and execute operations with little or no support. The IGFC controls 11 divisions, 37 brigades and 113 battalions as of November 2007.

Iraqi oil production is above the levels seen before the US-led invasion of the country in 2003, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA).

The IEA said Iraqi crude production is now running at 2.3 million barrels per day, compared with 1.9 million barrels at the start of this year.

It puts the rise down to the improving security situation in Iraq, especially in the north of the country.

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n recent years this pipeline has been out of action for long periods due to sabotage attacks.

Since the summer there has been a marked downturn in all forms of violence in Iraq.

Analysts point to a number of reasons for this, ranging from the big increase or "surge" in American troop numbers in Baghdad, to Sunni militant groups turning against former al-Qaeda allies.

British forces are due to hand control of security in Basra province to Iraqi forces on Sunday.

The security improvements in Iraq are leading to all sorts of dividends in the country, some of which could be enormously lucrative, said BBC correspondent Crispin Thorold in Baghdad.

These days, marriages are back, in public and in some cases, after dark. Mr. Muhammad's shop has reopened. And at a photo studio in western Baghdad recently, three young happy couples appeared for portraits, arriving with an entourage and bands in tow. The brides and grooms ascended a long line of stairs to get their pictures taken in front of landscapes depicting pastoral gardens, sunsets or even an American-style suburban home with a white picket fence.

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None perhaps were happier than Rifaat al-Haliji, 32, one of the bandleaders who arrived with a couple from Allawi, a neighborhood close by. After Ramadan ended last month, he said that business started to increase.

"We were stuck out of work for seven months," he said. Now, he added, "we do five weddings a week."

Now things are a little better. Customer come at 4 p.m. and leave at 11 p.m.

"You be the judge," said one cook, Ali Abu Hussain.

A few hundred yards north on a sealed-off stretch of the riverbank a dozen long-closed restaurants stand poised to reopen. Owners refurbished the dilapidated cafes using American dollars pumped into what American and Iraqi officials trumpeted as a showpiece renovation of the city's historic Abu Nawas Boulevard.

Some have trickled back to Baghdad after fleeing to Jordan or Syria. Others had no electricity in their homes to go online.

With the improvements in security, there is also increased demand for equipment. Customer numbers are up 20 percent for Nazar Nazaryan, a laser printing specialist, with much of the demand coming from government ministries.

The entire room rose in a wave to sing: "My country, my country, glory and beauty and delight is in your land. Safety, prosperity and hope is in your air."

There was no curtain, no set beyond a chair, a long rope and an Iraqi flag, which would soon be used as a shroud. But the piece, written and performed by students at Baghdad's Fine Arts Institute and sponsored by the Young People Union, an allegory with more mime than words, needed no more to be understood.

A painter smiles as he depicts all that is beautiful in Iraq; a small singing bird keeps him company until bombs begin to fall. The painter drops his brush and cowers, the bird flies away. People die in the street. An Iraqi politician in a snazzy suit appears. He is tied by a long rope to a man dressed in an American military uniform. The painter weeps as he watches the politician raise his arms like a marionette when the American tugs at him. Iraqis, tribal sheiks and workmen, painters and bodyguards, attack one another with cardboard daggers and guns.

On Thursday evenings now, before the Muslim holy day, men in long white garments and tribal head scarfs squeeze elbow to elbow with men in western T-shirts to scrutinize the shelves of dark shops lined with bottles of cheap whiskey, Dutch beer and Turkish arak.

They walk away now their heads held high, swinging their purchases in plastic bags. On a recent evening several men crowded near a small shop that was little more than a large pair of shutters halfway up the wall of a house. The shopkeepers leaned out the window and passed bottles across the ledge to waiting customers.

Such a scene would not have occurred even four months ago. Both the Shiite Mahdi militia, with ties to anti-American cleric Moktada al-Sadr, and extremist Sunni groups viewed liquor as a sin and bombed stores that sold it and threatened the owners. Christians were most often the victims since they owned the majority of liquor shops — there is no prohibition on selling alcohol in Christian teaching, although some Christian groups eschew it.

A short-notice reconciliation meeting of regional sheiks with potential for impact throughout Iraq was held Nov. 8 in Al Bassam, an area approximately 16 kilometers west of Baghdad city center.

The conference was called by a highly influential leader, Abu Maruf, with less than 24-hours notice, to make a public declaration of unity amongst the tribes against al-Qaeda and to map the way ahead for their region.

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Members of more than 30 tribes attended the conference; both Sunnis and Shias were represented. Their differences were set aside for the day as they publicly united with one voice and vowed to fight al-Qaeda and work toward a lasting peace for their region.

Maruf facilitated the conference and announced the formation of the Baghdad Brigade which will provide support to the region stretching from Yusufiyah to Taji. The brigade will consist of not only military elements, but also be the umbrella organization for their socio-political initiatives.

More than 350 officials of varying ranks and positions within their tribes were present to participate in the conference. In addition to the public declarations of unity, the tribal sheiks declared their support for a representative government and council members were voted on immediately following the speeches. Meetings with key ministries of the government of Iraq have been scheduled for the near future.

The drop began in September, as civilian deaths (884) fell 52 percent from August and 77 percent year-over-year, while military deaths (65) fell 23 percent and 10 percent over the same periods. October’s declines made it a trend: Civilian deaths (758) dropped an additional 12 percent from the previous month and 38 percent year-over-year, while US military deaths (38) dropped 42 percent and 64 percent during the same periods.

"Is it the surge, is it just dumb luck, or are there a series of factors that all contribute towards the lessening violence in Iraq?" asked General Terry Wolff, the Special Assistant to the President and Senior Director for Iraq and Afghanistan Policy Implementation on the National Security Council, in a conference call last Friday. Wolff and other senior military and intelligence officials offered a list of "complementary" factors theorized to have reduced the violence in interviews with The Long War Journal.

“The Surge” and counterinsurgency tactics

Top US officials are quick to point out the effect of the increase of US personnel on the reduction of violence, citing an acquired ability to target a wider range of al Qaeda and Shiite militia extremists and to project security into new areas with a focus on protecting civilians.

“[There are] two key threats out there. [C]learly al Qaeda is the large near-term threat. They’re the folks doing the car bombings, the mass killings, and you’ve also got the “Special Groups,” also known as the militant Shia splinter groups,” said Air Force Colenol Donald Bacon, Chief of Strategy and Plans, Strategic Communications at Multinational Force Iraq. “Fact is, we’re having some success in both areas and that’s equated to these better trends.”

A Muslim man had invited the American soldiers from “Chosen” Company 2-12 Cavalry to the church, where I videotaped as Muslims and Christians worked and rejoiced at the reopening of St John’s, an occasion all viewed as a sign of hope.

The Iraqis asked me to convey a message of thanks to the American people. ” Thank you, thank you,” the people were saying. One man said, “Thank you for peace.” Another man, a Muslim, said “All the people, all the people in Iraq, Muslim and Christian, is brother.” The men and women were holding bells, and for the first time in memory freedom rang over the ravaged land between two rivers. (Videotape to follow.)